The COVID-19 pandemic and the major natural disaster of 2020 became turning points for Turkmen society. These events pushed tens of thousands of citizens to unite for the first time around common demands — transparency, government accountability, and protection of the rights of those affected. However, this new civil society is developing not inside the country but abroad, where Turkmen citizens can speak openly and document violations. Even outside Turkmenistan, activists face threats of deportation and persecution, while Turkey and Russia, which maintain close cooperation with Ashgabat, continue to hand over dissidents to Turkmen security services.
The Washington protest and the case of Merdan Mukhammedov
In late July, a group of Turkmen activists gathered outside the Turkish Embassy in Washington to protest the deportation of opposition members. The trigger was the detention of 32-year-old HSM-Turkmenistan movement member Merdan Mukhammedov, who was summoned by Turkish police under the pretext of resolving a domestic issue, then taken to a deportation center and expelled to Turkmenistan.
In his home country, he faces accusations of espionage, extremism, and threats to national security. According to human rights defenders, he was subjected to investigative procedures that showed clear signs of beatings.
Activists emphasize that Mukhammedov investigated corruption, criticized the regime, and documented violence in Turkmen prisons. The charges brought against him by Turkmenistan are typical politically motivated allegations and carry a potential sentence of up to 25 years.
The authoritarian system and its influence on the diaspora
Turkmenistan remains one of the most closed and repressive states in Eurasia. Power has been concentrated in the Berdymukhammedov family for more than 17 years, and any independent civic activity is viewed as a threat. In this context, the Turkmen diaspora has come under particular pressure: many activists abroad face persecution through mechanisms of international cooperation.
According to members of the movement, Turkmen security services actively use their ties with Turkey and Russia to obtain dissidents. The official pretext is violation of migration rules, while the real aim is political repression.
How the new wave of Turkmen opposition emerged
The growth of protest sentiment began in 2020, when a devastating hurricane hit Turkmenabat. Independent sources reported casualties, but the authorities chose to hide the tragedy and offered no assistance to victims. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic caused strict border closures, leaving many migrants unable to return to their families.
The authorities’ silence on the disaster became a trigger. Turkmen citizens began recording videos criticizing the government — at first hiding their faces, then increasingly speaking openly. Protests quickly spread across social media, despite the platforms being blocked inside the country.
Even within Turkmenistan, spontaneous demonstrations occurred: more than a thousand residents of Turkmenabat held a sit-in protest. The authorities responded with detentions, criminal cases, and repression for publishing images of destruction online.
Turkey: arrests, raids and deportations
Since 2020, Turkish authorities have increased control over Turkmen migrants, many of whom lived in the country with expired documents — often for reasons beyond their control (Turkmen consulates rarely renew passports for dissidents).
According to activists, in 2022 human rights defenders obtained a list of 25 Turkmen citizens facing extradition. Since then, at least seven have been deported to Turkmenistan, including:
• Merdan Mukhammedov — persecuted for political criticism
• Farhad Meimankuliev — sentenced to a long prison term upon return
• Jumasapar Dadebaev — imprisoned in Uzbekistan after deportation
• Imanov, Klychov and Baymuradov — expelled as “illegal migrants”
Activists also reported attacks on opposition members in Turkey and leaks of personal data from migration authorities to Turkish and Turkmen structures.
Russia: disappearances and forced returns
Russia is also involved in handing over Turkmen activists. The most notable cases include:
• Azat Isakov — disappeared in 2021 after a police visit; Russian authorities claimed he “voluntarily flew” to Turkmenistan despite lacking a valid passport
• Malikberdy Allamyradov — a student detained in December 2023 after a solo protest; according to the opposition, he was secretly transported and sentenced in Turkmenistan
Russian-Turkmen relations remain strategically close, creating significant risks for activists seeking asylum.
Torture and enforced disappearances
Turkmenistan systematically employs the harshest methods to suppress dissent. Human rights organizations have documented for decades:
• long sentences on fabricated charges
• torture and ill-treatment in prisons
• “total isolation” of political prisoners — a practice known as enforced disappearance
According to the “Prove They Are Alive!” campaign, over the past 20 years, 162 prisoners have been subjected to such isolation, at least 29 have died, and the fate of many remains unknown.
The activists’ personal choice: escape or deportation risk
Opposition member Nurmuhammet Annaev left Turkey after repeated searches, attacks, and threats, and is now seeking asylum in Europe. His case is typical of many Turkmen activists forced to seek safety outside countries cooperating with Ashgabat.
ARGA Observatory Conclusion
The experience of the Turkmen diaspora reveals a critical problem: even after leaving the country, activists remain vulnerable because of cross-border pressure from authoritarian regimes and the willingness of certain states to comply with requests from Turkmen security services.
The new wave of civic activism, triggered by natural disaster and the pandemic, shows the growing need of Turkmen citizens for transparency, accountability, and human rights protection. However, without international attention and mechanisms ensuring the safety of dissidents, these voices remain at risk.